Letter from Shift's CEO
Why Shift publishes the SME Economy Index.
Over the past three decades Australian banks have steadily reallocated credit away from business and towards housing. Business credit was more than twice housing credit in the early 1990s; housing has since overtaken it and now sits at almost twice the business book.
The change is structural. It is driven in large part by capital rules that make mortgage lending more attractive than business lending for the banks. It has left SMEs competing for a shrinking share of bank balance sheets.
Since mid-2024, bank credit to large businesses has grown roughly twice as fast as credit to small businesses.
Banks are directing a disproportionate share of their business lending to larger businesses, and smaller businesses are increasingly underserved.
Within the banking system, the overwhelming majority of SME lending is secured, most of it supported by residential property. Unsecured credit is a thin slice of the total, around 4.2% of bank SME lending.
Unsecured credit is the form best suited to a growing business. It can fund stock, wages and receivables, and the amount isn’t limited by the value of the owner’s property. This is the gap in bank lending where non-bank lenders have grown.
Note: Only includes bank lenders (authorised deposit-taking institutions, or ADIs, the RBA-regulated banking system) and registered financial corporations with $2 billion business credit or more, as per RBA D14. The RBA notes that non-bank unsecured lending is not well captured in regulator data, so this view understates the total market the next section sizes.
Non-bank lenders sit largely outside the data collected by regulators. Combining the bank figures with non-bank working-capital books reported to ASIC gives an approximate view of the total unsecured SME credit market.
On those filings, total non-bank lending accounts for around 25% of total SME unsecured lending in Australia. Shift is the largest non-bank provider of unsecured lending to Australian SMEs, with a ~10% share based on the available data.
While non-banks have stepped into the gap created by the retreat of the banks, but the whole unsecured SME credit market, bank and non-bank combined, is still only $10bn. That is a small pool of credit for an SME economy that would be the country’s largest industry if counted as one.
The gap between what the SME economy contributes and the growth-oriented credit available to it is the central issue in the SME credit landscape.
The supporting data, references and methodology that sit behind the Shift SME Economy Index are available upon request.
Why Shift publishes the SME Economy Index.
How Shift's framework maps SME data.
How the Index is built, and how it's revised over time.